Scotland’s Election Is Wide Open and Reform Is Surging

New polling shows dozens of seats on a knife edge, with Reform UK emerging as a serious force across Scotland.

The same polling points to a major shift in Scottish politics. The SNP is projected to lose ground, with John Swinney expected to fall from 64 seats in 2021 to 56. The Greens are projected to win eight seats, meaning the pro independence parties could fall short of an outright majority.

Most striking of all is the rise of Reform. The poll suggests Reform is now above 25% in around 20 constituencies and on course to return at least two MSPs in every part of Scotland, with up to four in West Scotland. It also points to Reform taking constituency seats such as Ayr and Banffshire and Buchan Coast from the SNP.

Polling expert Luke Tryl said the biggest message from the survey was the sheer volatility of six party politics, with close to half of all constituency contests too close to call. That reflects what many campaigners are already hearing on the doorstep: voters are frustrated, old loyalties are breaking down, and more people are willing to back Reform for real change.

The poll also underlines a growing problem for the other unionist parties. With Reform now establishing itself as the leading challenger to the SNP in many areas, tactical voting calculations are becoming far less predictable. Even analysts are warning that Reform’s rise could reshape the election in the closing days of the campaign.

Malcolm Offord said the findings matched what Reform activists are seeing across the country, a clear and growing momentum. His message remains simple: if voters want to remove the failing SNP government and take Scotland in a new direction, they should use both votes for Reform.